By Arthur Justin
NASCAR Cup Series
Next Race: Hollywood Casino 400 Presented ESPN BET
The Place: Kansas Speedway
Track Length: 1.5 Mile Asphalt Oval
The Date: Sunday, September 28
The Time: 3 p.m. ET
The Purse: $9,797,935
TV: USA, 2:30 p.m. ET
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Distance: 400.5 miles (267 Laps); Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 80),
Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 165), Final Stage (Ends on Lap 267)
NASCAR Cup Series
Kansas Speedway Storylines and Insights:
· This weekend marks the 40th running of a NASCAR Cup Series race at Kansas Speedway.
· This is the first 1.5 mile race since the Coca-Cola 600 and the sixth of seven races on 1.5 mile tracks in 2025. There have been 18 races since the last race on a 1.5 mile track.
· Kansas traditionally held one Cup race from 2001-2010, and two races every year since 2011.
· This is the eighth time Kansas has hosted a Playoff race in the Round of 12 (2014-19, 2024-25) after having been in both the Round of 16 (2022-23) and the Round of 8 (2020-21).
· Kansas and Las Vegas are the only tracks to hold a Playoff race in all three rounds of the Playoffs.
· Kansas is one of four tracks to host a Playoff race every year since the formation of the Playoffs in 2004 (Talladega, Martinsville, Phoenix).
· This is the 26th race at Kansas since the repave following the 2012 season.
· The winner of the fall Kansas race has gone on to win the championship four times, but only twice in the Elimination Era (2017 – Martin Truex Jr, 2021 – Kyle Larson).
· Kansas has never produced a first-time Cup winner in its previous 39 races, more races than any other track currently on the schedule.
· The pass for the win came in the final two laps in three of the last five Kansas races including two last lap passes.
· The driver who led the most laps won just once in the last six Kansas races (Kyle Larson – 05/2025).
· Seven of the 12 2025 Playoff drivers previously won at Kansas, including each of the last six races there.
· Kyle Larson is the only repeat winner in the last 10 races at Kansas, winning three times including in May.
· Kyle Larson led 760 laps at Kansas since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2021, nearly four times more than any other driver during that timeframe.
· Kyle Larson led 221 laps on his way to winning at Kansas in May, the most laps led by any driver in a 400-mile race on a 1.5-mile track in Cup history.
· All 11 stages on 1.5-mile tracks in 2025 were won by current Playoff drivers, led by Kyle Larson (4).
· Three of 23XI Racing’s nine Cup wins came at Kansas, all three were in the last seven races.
· The closest finish in series history came at Kansas in May 2024, Kyle Larson beat Chris Buescher by 0.001 seconds.
· Alex Bowman’s 11 top 10s at Kansas are his most at a track.
· Chase Elliott’s 12 top-10 finishes at Kansas are his second most at a track behind 13 at Martinsville.
· Christopher Bell led in the last seven Kansas races, tied for the longest ever streak by a driver at Kansas.
· William Byron’s eight top-10 finishes at Kansas are tied for his second-most at a track behind nine at Phoenix.
· Hendrick Motorsports finished in the top 2 in six of the last eight races at Kansas.
· Kyle Larson and Ryan Preece are tied for the most top-10s on 1.5-mile tracks in 2025 with four.
· Spire Motorsports won their first two Cup poles on 1.5-mile tracks earlier this year, no team has ever won their first three Cup poles all on 1.5-mile tracks.
· Kyle Larson’s 10 wins on 1.5 mile tracks rank fifth among active drivers, all 10 came in his 34 starts on them with Hendrick Motorsports (29% win percentage on them with Hendrick).
· Kyle Busch finished outside the top-10 in the last nine races on 1.5 mile tracks, he is on a 13-race streak without a top-five finish on 1.5-mile tracks dating to Las Vegas in October 2023.
· Chase Briscoe is the only driver to finish top-10 in all four Playoff races.
· Joey Logano finished top-five in the last three races, his longest top five streak since Spring 2019.
· Toyota won the first three Playoff races but their best finish at New Hampshire was Christopher Bell in sixth
· Toyota led 79% of the laps raced in the first round of the Playoffs, only led 19 total at New Hampshire.
· The biggest deficit of points to overcome to point into the Round of 8 is 22 points by Chase Elliott in 2019.
· The most points any driver has ever been above the cutline in the Round of 12 and failed to advance was 29 points by Kyle Larson in 2017.
· Last season, Joey Logano overcame a 13-point deficit in the Round of 12 and went on to win the Championship.
· Tyler Reddick has overcome a point deficit and advanced from the Round of 12 in each of the last two seasons. He was -4 after race one last year, and -3 after race one in 2023.
Playoff Seeding Analysis for the Round of 12 (2017-Current):
- 96% of the drivers seeded in the top-three entering the Round of 12 advance to the Round of 8.
- Only once has a driver seeded in the top-three entering the Round of 12 failed to advance to the Round of 8 (Kyle Larson seeded 3rd in 2017).
- 92% of the drivers seeded in the top-six entering the Round of 12 advanced to the Round of 8 (only four of the 48 failed to advance).
- Only 31% of the drivers starting the Round of 12 below the cutline advance to the Round of 8 (10 of 32).
- 72% of the drivers ranked in the top-four entering the Round of 12 race for a Championship in the season finale (23 of 32).
NCS Clinch Scenarios for Kansas Speedway (Playoff Race #5):
Already Clinched
· The following driver has clinched a spot in the 8-driver field of the next round: Ryan Blaney.
Can Clinch Via Points
· If there is a repeat winner or a win by a driver who cannot advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being 57 points above the 7th winless driver in the standings. The same point requirements listed below would hold true if a new win comes from among William Byron, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano or Chase Elliott.
• William Byron: Could only clinch with help
• Kyle Larson: Could only clinch with help
• Christopher Bell: Could only clinch with help
• Denny Hamlin: Could only clinch with help
• Joey Logano: Could only clinch with help
• Chase Elliott: Could only clinch with help
· If there is a new winner from Chase Briscoe or another winless driver lower in the standings but still eligible to advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being 57 points above the 6th winless driver in the standings.
• William Byron: Could only clinch with help
• Kyle Larson: Could only clinch with help
• Christopher Bell: Could only clinch with help
• Denny Hamlin: Could only clinch with help
• Joey Logano: Could only clinch with help
Can Clinch Via Win
· The following drivers would clinch on their win alone: William Byron, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace.
COURTESY NASCAR COMMUNICATIONS
