BOWL GAME PREVIEW: Michigan returns to CFP for second straight year playing dangerous TCU in today’s Fiesta Bowl

Who: No. 2 Michigan (13-0 overall, 9-0 B1G) vs. No. 3 TCU (12-1, 9-0 Big 12)
What: 2022 College Football Playoff at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
When: New Year’s Eve, 4 p.m. ET (2 p.m. CT)
Where: State Farm Stadium | Glendale, Ariz.
Broadcast: TV: ESPN | Radio: Michigan Sports Network 
Series History: First meeting

SCOUTING THE HORNED FROGS

TCU Facts

Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Head Coach: Sonny Dykes (1st year at TCU, 12-1)
Stadium: Amon G. Carter Stadium (46,000)

Key Players
 

  • Max Duggan (QB): The Heisman runner-up has thrown for 3,321 yards and 30 touchdowns this season against four interceptions. The team’s third-leading rusher, Duggan has added 404 yards and six scores on the ground.
  • Kendre Miller (RB): The junior running back has rushed for 1,342 yards, good for 16th nationally, with 17 rushing touchdowns, sixth nationally.
  • Quentin Johnston (WR): The Horned Frogs’ leading receiver, Johnston has caught 53 passes for 903 yards (17.0 yds/rec). The big-play receiver shares the team lead with five receiving TDs.
  • Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (CB): The Jim Thorpe Award winner as the nation’s top defensive back, Hodges-Tomlinson has three INT and 42 tackles on the season. His 38.9 passer rating allowed in coverage this season is the lowest among Big 12 CBs according to PFFCollege.
  • Dee Winters (LB): The senior linebacker leads the team with 11.5 TFL and 7.5 sacks, ranking second in the Big 12 in the latter category.
  • Josh Newton (CB): A transfer in his first year at TCU, Newton leads the Big 12 with 15 passes defended on the season, with three INT.

MICHIGAN OFFENSE VS TCU DEFENSE

Trends 

 

  • J.J. McCarthy has tossed three TD passes each of the last two games. Those six TDs are his most of any two-game stretch so far this season.
  • Over the last two games, Michigan has scored touchdowns on all five trips to the red zone.
  • Donovan Edwards has Michigan’s two longest runs of the season (85, 75), both of which came against Ohio St. This has translated into Edwards leading the country in average yards per carry on the season (7.45).
  • Not only does the Michigan offense start games quickly, scoring on its opening possession in 11 of 13 games, the Wolverines also lead the nation in 4th quarter scoring at 12.7 points per game.
  • The TCU defense has given up over 200 yards on the ground in two of the last three games and over 150 yards on eight occasions this season, however they have not allowed 300 yards through the air since Oct. 8 (Kansas, 351).

In the Trenches
 

  • In part due to running behind the reigning Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line and 2022 finalists, Michigan has the fourth-best average time of possession in the country at 33:54 per game. Individually, Michigan center Olu Oluwatimi won both the Rimington and Outland trophies for his dominant play this year helping the offense achieve its success. 
  • Going hand-in-hand with T.O.P., Michigan is 18th-nationally (2nd B1G) in First Down Offense, having moved the chains 301 times. TCU’s defense, on the other hand, sits at 92nd in the country, having allowed 261 opponent first downs. 
  • The Michigan offensive line is surrendering just 1.0 sack per game, the 10th-best mark in the nation. TCU’s defense, conversely, is 76th nationally at getting to the opposing QB, averaging 2.0 sacks per game.

On the Ground
 

  • Overall, the Wolverines are averaging 243.0 yards per game on the ground, good for sixth nationally and tops in the B1G. TCU’s defense, conversely, lists 66th nationally, yielding 149.5 rush yards/game.
  • While Blake Corum led the way with 1,463 rushing yards and 18 scores, Donovan Edwards is closing in on 1,000 yards himself, currently sitting at 872. If Edwards can reach 1,000 yards, it’ll be the first time since 2011 that Michigan has had two players surpass 1,000 rushing yards in the same season, and the first time ever the feat would be accomplished by two running backs.
  • Nine Wolverines have scored at least one rushing touchdown so far this season with Donovan Edwards contributing seven and J.J. McCarthy four. Kalel Mullings registered his first two career rushing scores against Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game. 
  • TCU has held one FBS opponent under 100 rushing yards in a game, limiting Texas to 28 yards on 22 carries. Doak Walker Award winner Bijan Robinson had just 29 yards on 12 carries.

Through the Air
 

  • J.J. McCarthy has completed passes at a 65.5% clip so far this season, throwing for 2,376 yards and 20 touchdowns.
  • Ronnie Bell leads all Michigan pass catchers with 56 receptions and 754 yards while Cornelius Johnson leads the team with six TD receptions.
  • Tight ends Luke Schoonmaker and Colston Loveland have combined for 46 receptions for 585 yards and five touchdowns. All Wolverine tight ends have combined to catch 26% of all passes so far this season.
  • Out of the backfield, Donovan Edwards has been utilized in the passing game, hauling in a pair of touchdown receptions on the season with 17 total catches for 192 yards.
  • TCU’s defense boasts the top two (and three of the top 10) Big 12 leaders in passes defended on the season and are 15th-nationally with 14 interceptions, returning two for scores. 
  • Opponents have passed the ball 451 times against TCU this season, the 11th-most pass attempts against in the country and the Horned Frogs are allowing 235.6 passing yards per game, 84th nationally. Opponents are averaging 12.6 yards per completion on the season, 102nd nationally.

MICHIGAN DEFENSE VS TCU OFFENSE

Trends
 

  • Michigan’s fifth-ranked scoring defense (13.4 ppg) will match up against TCU’s sixth-ranked scoring offense (40.3 ppg)
  • Michigan Defensive Coordinator Jesse Minter was a finalist for the Broyles Award, given to the nation’s top assistant coach, an honor that was ultimately won by TCU Offensive Coordinator Garrett Riley.
  • TCU has allowed just one sack total in the past three games.
  • TCU’s scoring has been balanced all season, scoring 33 touchdowns on the ground and 31 through the air.
  • Both Michigan and TCU have been impressive in the second halves of games this season. TCU has outscored its opponents in the second half in eight games this season, overcoming three halftime deficits to at least force overtime (2-1 in such games). Michigan, on the other hand, has allowed just 74 points in the second half all year, with an average scoring differential of 21.5-5.7.
  • TCU’s offense is scoring touchdowns on 67% of red zone trips this season while the Michigan defense gives up touchdowns on just 38% of opponent red zone trips.
  • TCU leads the nation with 19 plays of 50+ yards and is tied with Tennessee for most offensive touchdowns of over 50 yards (13).

In the Trenches
 

  • While only surrendering one sack over the last three games, TCU has allowed 4 or more sacks in a game on four separate occasions this season.
  • Two opponents tallied 10+ TFLs against the Horned Frogs this season.
  • Led by Mike Morris (7.5), 14 different Wolverine defenders have registered at least 0.5 sacks so far this season, giving the Michigan defense 36 on the season, 16th nationally.
  • Of Mike Morris’ 21 tackles on the season, over half (11) have been for negative yardage.

On the Ground
 

  • On the season, TCU is averaging 200 rush yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry facing a Michigan defense that is third-best in the country, limiting opponents to 85.2 rush yards per game and 2.92 yards per carry.
  • Only one running back has rushed for over 100 yards in a game this season against the Michigan defense. In fact, only five have surpassed 50 yards on the ground in 2022.
  • TCU running back Kendre Miller had a stretch of five straight games rushing for over 100 yards in the second half of the season, however has not reached the century mark in three straight games.
  • Kendre Miller has scored at least one rushing TD in 14 consecutive games dating back to last season, the longest active streak in the nation.

Through the Air
 

  • Michigan has a Team Pass Efficiency Defense of 106.57, the third-best mark nationally while TCU will counter with the fourth-best Team Pass Efficiency Offense at 163.29.
  • TCU QB Max Duggan has thrown for over 300 yards in five games this season, with season-highs of 390 yards and five TDs against Tarleton St. Against FBS competition, Duggan’s high of 341 yards came against West Virginia, the 110th-ranked pass defense in the country.
  • Duggan has thrown for at least three touchdown passes in seven games in 2022, but has thrown multiple TD passes just once over the last four games after accomplishing the feat in each of his first eight starts on the season.
  • TCU wide receiver Taye Barber has three receptions of over 70 yards this season which ties for the national lead, but has just three catches for 26 yards and a score over the last two games.
  • The Michigan defense has allowed just nine passing touchdowns against this season, the fifth-best number in the country, and giving up just two passing TDs against across the last four games combined (both vs OSU).
  • Michigan has not allowed a passing touchdown against in the second half of a game since Iowa (Oct. 1).
  • Michael Barrett (Rutgers) and Will Johnson (Purdue) each have games with multiple interceptions. It is the first time since 2016 that a pair of Michigan teammates have each had games of multiple interceptions (Channing Stribling – Wisconsin, Delano Hill – Maryland).

SPECIAL TEAMS

Trends
 

  • Both kickers, Jake Moody and Griffin Kell, had memorable games on November 19 of this season. Moody connected on all four field goal attempts, including three in the fourth quarter and the game-winner with just 0:09 left to play to help Michigan defeat Illinois, 19-17. Kell, meanwhile connected on a 40-yard attempt as time expired to beat Baylor.

Place Kicking
 

  • Jake Moody has been a consistent strong point for the Michigan offense. The 2021 Lou Groza Award winner and 2022 finalist, Moody has connected on a single-season program record and FBS-leading 26 field goals this year while also holding the program career mark with 66 made field goals. Moody has added 58 PAT.
  • TCU kicker Griffin Kell is 16-18 on the year with a long of 54. Kell has missed two PAT on the season, converting 55 of 57 attempts.
  • Jake Moody leads the country with 136 points scored while Kell lists 24th (17th amongst kickers) at 103.

Punting
 

  • Brad Robbins has punted 38 times on the season for 1,595 yards, an average of 42.0. Robbins has eight punts over 50 yards with a long of 62. 13 of Robbins’ punts have been downed inside the 20.
  • Brad Robbins boasts the best average hangtime in the country at 4.36 seconds, limiting potential returns against.
  • Jordy Sandy has punted 52 times on the season with a 39.6 average. 15 of Sandy’s punts have been downed inside the 20 with another 31 being fair caught. Despite having just three punts over 50 yards this season, the senior has had a minimum of eight such punts each of the previous three seasons.
  • TCU has only allowed five punt returns against all season, totaling 29 yards.
  • Excluding the blocked punt against Rutgers, Michigan opponents have returned a total of six punts for 17 yards.

Return Game
 

  • A.J. Henning has served as the primary returner for the Wolverines this fall, returning 26 punts for 185 yards and a 61-yard TD while adding 163 yards on eight kick returns. Roman Wilson has contributed five kick returns totalling 114 yards.
  • Derius Davis is the main returner for TCU, returning 18 kicks for 362 yards. He has returned two punts for scores this season, returning 17 punts for 237 yards overall. In his career, Davis has six special teams scores, which ties a TCU record.

THE FIESTA BOWL

  • Michigan has made one prior appearance in the Fiesta Bowl, a 27-23 victory over Nebraska in 1986.
  • Likewise, TCU is also making its second appearance in the Fiesta Bowl, having lost in 2010 to Boise State, 17-10.

MICHIGAN PLAYERS FROM TEXAS

While no active Michigan players hail from Arizona, the site of the Fiesta Bowl, six Wolverines are from Texas. Of the six, only one (Ike Iwunnah) is from the same city as any current Horned Frogs. Iwunnah (Garland, Texas – Lakeview Centennial HS) was high school teammates with TCU’s Ezra Dotson-Oyetade and an additional five Horned Frogs call Garland their hometown. 

  • Alex Orji – Sachse, Texas
  • Alan Bowman – Grapevine, Texas
  • Tavierre Dunlap – Del Valle, Texas
  • Gemon Green – DeSoto, Texas
  • German Green – DeSoto, Texas
  • Ike Iwunnah – Garland, Texas

COURTESY MICHIGAN ATHLETIC COMMUNICATIONS